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(Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

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Abstract : Foreign trade has made important contribution to China economic growth, and the stable development of foreign trade is very important to the China economic restructure. After "8.11" exchange rate reform, a rapid devaluation of RMB plays no active role on promoting China's export trade, and leads to the significantly 汇率分析篇 double cut-down of import and export scale due to the increasing import cost, which also increases the risk of Chinese economy. This paper analyzes the reasons of RMB exchange rate devaluation pressure, and presents the low-speed operation characteristics of China's current foreign trade. Based on the expanded event study method, this paper measures the effects of "8.11" exchange rate reform on the China's foreign trade, and proposes some policy suggestions.

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